Why Trump Achieved a Major Step in the Middle East But Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict

Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.

Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he intended to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.

A initial get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.

"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."

• Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
• Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs White House without results

The on-again, off-again summit is another development in the president's efforts to mediate an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the American leader after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.

During a speech in the North African country last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.

"It is essential to get Russia done," he said.

However, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for nearing several years.

Less Leverage

According to the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a agreement was Israel's move to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided the president bargaining power to pressure Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

The US president gained from a long record of siding with Israel since his initial presidency, including his choice to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to change US policy on the legality of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

The American leader, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a situation that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.

Add in Trump's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.

In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.

The US leader has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the global economy and intensify the conflict.

Meanwhile, the president has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the nation - only to then retreat in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.

The president often boasts about his skill to sit down and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the hostilities any closer to a peaceful end.

The Russian president may actually be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.

In July, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That legislation was afterwards delayed.

Last week, as news emerged that the White House was seriously contemplating shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the president of Russia called the US president who then touted the potential summit in Budapest.

The next day, Trump welcomed Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.

Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.

"As you are aware, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I came out really well," he said.

But the Ukrainian leader later commented on the sequence of events.

"Once the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – Russia quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.

Thus, in a short period, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – even land Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has finally settled on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal Russia has refused to accept.

On the campaign trail previously, the candidate promised that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since abandoned that commitment, admitting that concluding the war is proving more difficult than he anticipated.

It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when both parties desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.