The Reasons Saudi Money Has Not Transformed The Magpies into Title Contenders

Eddie Howe is not prone to histrionics or grand public statements. So by his usual demeanor, his press conference after the weekend's loss to West Ham qualifies as a angry tirade. Newcastle took an early lead but the opposition were ahead by the interval, as well as hitting the post and having a penalty revoked by VAR, leading Howe to make a triple change at the break.

“That was the frustrating thing about the first half,” Howe stated. “Virtually any player could have been substituted and I believe that was a reflection of our performance level at that stage in the game and it's extremely uncommon for me to have that impression. Actually, I don’t think I have during my tenure as head coach of the club, so I felt the squad needed a significant change at half-time. That’s why I did those decisions.”

Anthony Gordon, Nick Woltemade and Emil Krafth were substituted at half-time and Newcastle managed to steady to an extent in the second half, but never appearing like they could get back into the contest against an opponent that had won only one of their last nine league matches. Considering how packed the centre of the standings currently is, with a mere three-point gap dividing the top spots from mid-table, and nine points between second and 17th, a sequence of twelve points from ten matches has not left Newcastle adrift but, similarly, they cannot end the campaign in 13th.

The Issue of Expectations

The problem partially is one of public view. In the Saudi Public Investment Fund, the club possess the wealthiest owners in the globe. The expectation when the PIF acquired 80% of the team in 2021 was that it would bring a game-changing impact, similar to the former Chelsea owner had at Chelsea or the City Group had at Manchester City. The difference is that those two owners assumed control prior to the advent of FFP regulations (and the ongoing allegations against Manchester City concern if they breached those guidelines after they were implemented).

Profit and sustainability restrictions restrict the capacity of owners, no matter how wealthy, to spend money on their squads and therefore likely might have slowed every Middle Eastern effort to raise Newcastle to the standard of Manchester City. However it wasn't necessary for the club's expenditure to have been quite as cautious as it has been; they could have invested further and stayed inside the threshold – or just accepted a fairly minor European penalty given their big issue is more with the European than the Premier League regulation.

Infrastructure Investment and PSR Regulations

Additionally, infrastructure spending is excluded from PSR calculations; the easiest way to raise income to create more PSR headroom would be to expand or renovate the arena. Considering the location of the home ground, with protected structures on multiple sides, in reality that probably implies constructing an completely new stadium. There was talk in March of potentially undertaking the short move to a local park – opposition from local groups might have been overcome with a commitment to create a replacement green space on the current ground location – but there has been any progress on that proposal. There has been significant retrenchment from the PIF on a range of projects as it shifts focus on domestic affairs; the attitude to the football club appears entirely in keeping with that strategic shift.

The Alexander Isak Situation

The Alexander Isak saga was born of that tension. A bolder leadership might have framed his transfer as necessary to release funds for additional investment; rather there was a unsuccessful attempt to keep him. That meant Newcastle began the season amid a sense of disappointment despite the signings of Woltemade, Yoane Wissa, Jacob Ramsey, Malick Thiaw and Anthony Elanga. The opening was indifferent: one win in their first six fixtures.

But it seemed a turning point had been turned. They had won five in six prior to Sunday, a streak that included demolitions of Union Saint-Gilloise and Benfica in the Champions League. This explains the display against West Ham was so surprising. The problem maybe is that Newcastle’s approach is very aggressive, very high-octane; a minor decrease in energy can have profound consequences. Perhaps the pressure of domestic, European and Carabao Cup matches, five games in 15 days, had taken its toll. Woltemade featured in all five games and looked especially weary.

The Nature of Contemporary Football

This is the reality of today's football. Managers have to be prepared to make changes. The manager has been unlucky that the forward's fitness issue has meant he is short of attacking options but, no matter how reasonable the reasons, the weekend's performance was unacceptable –especially following taking the lead at a stadium primed to turn on its home team.

Howe will hope it was just a blip, one of those days when all players is off-colour simultaneously, but if the Magpies are to secure the Champions League next season, let alone one day launch an genuine title challenge, they cannot be as unreliable as they have been.