The Former President's Ukraine Peace Plan Is Seen As a Gift to Russia's Leader

For a brief period, the former US president gave the impression to take a firm position concerning the Ukrainian conflict. Following making statements of "significant repercussions" during the summer in case Putin carried on hindering truce talks, the former president finally enacted major penalties on Russia's primary oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This decision seriously impacted the Russian leader's ability to finance his military invasion in Ukraine.

Yet, through his recently unveiled 28-point peace plan for the conflict, which was developed by both nations' officials without Ukrainian or EU involvement, he has apparently returned to his Russia-friendly position.

Favoring Invasion

Trump's initiative would effectively reward the Russian leader for attacking a sovereign nation while leaving Ukraine's political freedom in peril. Although strong proclamations that "The nation's independence will be confirmed", significant aspects of the plan actually undermine that same autonomy. Seen as a Moscow's wish would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his real-estate experience, the former president persists to consider the war as a simple land disagreement, implying giving Russia a part of Ukrainian territory will appease the ruler. However, Putin's invasion is not only about controlling a damaged area of deindustrialized territory in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about the nation's democratic governance – and Putin's obvious goal to eliminate it so it ceases to serves as an enticing example for the Russia's population of the accountable governance that his increasing authoritarian rule prevents them.

Border Surrenders

Although maintaining in status the currently split oblasts of these areas, Trump's proposal would force the nation to abandon the whole Donetsk province. Aside from rewarding the Russian Federation with area that its military have been unsuccessful to occupy in exceeding a decade of warfare, this concession would leave Ukraine's military defenses critically undermined.

This region is the site of the nation's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the well-established defensive positions that constitute a key barrier to Russian advances. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military surrender these positions, providing Russian forces a open way to Kyiv should he later decide to resume the hostilities.

Military Limitations

Then, in a step that would make renewed conflict more feasible for Russia, the plan would force the nation to diminish the size of its military from their existing 800,000 to 850,000 personnel to a cap of six hundred thousand. Significantly, the proposal sets no such constraints on the invading army.

Apparently as a accommodation to Russia's attempts to portray the nation's chosen by the people leadership as radicals, the plan states: "Every extremist doctrine and activities must be rejected and banned." As if to highlight this element, it demands that "Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days" of a peace deal. However, the proposal places no requirement that the Russian leader endanger his dictatorship by holding democratic processes in Russia.

Protection Commitments

Admittedly, the initiative has Russia commit not to "invade other states" and to "enshrine in legislation its stance of non-aggression towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". However taking into account that the Russian leadership has broken comparable accords in the previous instances – such as the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government pledged to respect the nation's territorial integrity in return for relinquishing its historical atomic arms, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia agreed to a halt in fighting and a return of occupied areas in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – why should anyone have confidence in Russia this time?

That is why Ukraine has been so determined on external protection assurances. While the initiative promises a "decisive unified armed reaction" should the Russian Federation resume its military campaign, and includes that "The nation will receive reliable defense commitments", the specifics range from unclear to concerning. The initiative would not only deny the nation alliance membership but also prevent alliance nations from stationing troops on Ukrainian territory, thereby precluding the peacekeeping contingent, likely led by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to deter Putin from replenishing his weakened military, restocking, and attacking again.

International Response

Another supplementary accord apparently would grant Ukraine with a Nato-style security guarantee, in which any later "significant, planned, and sustained military assault" by Russia on Ukraine "would be considered as an attack threatening the peace and security of the allied countries." This indicates a military response. Yet different from a capable national defense – Ukraine's most reliable deterrent against renewed hostilities – the success of the supplementary deal would rely on the willingness of Nato leaders, including Trump, to react through arms to Putin's aggression, something they have {not