Is the Entertainment Fading? The Decline of Open-Play Goal Scoring

A key narrative of the EPL season so far concerns the reduction of goals scored in open play and how clubs are finding goals increasingly from dead-ball situations as an alternative.

Comparing scoring methods to matchday 11 last season, we note 39 fewer goals in open-play and an increase of 26 from set-plays and penalties, giving us 13 less overall.

If we look at the bigger picture, shot attempts teams are taking have seen an incredible 370 fewer in open-play than at this stage previously.

Regardless of the significant rise in set-play finishes, records show a mere two extra attempts produced from them outside of spot-kicks, demonstrating the proficiency sides are at discovering methods to convert from set-pieces.

Goal Statistics Tell the Tale

Over 300 goals recorded in the first 110 fixtures to date works out at 2.74 goals each match, which if it continued for all 38 games might be the least for since 2020-21, from five seasons ago (2.69 per game).

Yet merely 196 scores coming in open play averages out 1.78 per fixture and is heading to be the smallest for since 2009-10, back in 2009-10 (1.76).

That campaign is also the only Premier League campaign to experience scoring more often from non-penalty set-pieces than this season's rate of 0.77 per game (0.79 per game).

Which Teams Account for This Change?

Regarding scoring from open play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have seen the most significant drop, scoring a mere four in 11 matches, 10 fewer than this point the previous campaign.

Excluding Wolverhampton, the EPL's decline in open-play scoring is largely a London thing, with five of the capital's seven sides recording a minimum of five fewer goals from open-play than last season.

Honestly, this is primarily due to them scoring numerous goals at the beginning of the previous campaign instead of them really struggling to score in open-play this campaign.

Meanwhile Man City have seen the most significant jump, with almost every one of their 23 scores this season originating in open play.

Dead-Ball Dominance

Looking at newly promoted sides with the teams that went down that they superseded. Sunderland the Black Cats have scored three more goals in open-play than Southampton did in matchday 11 leading to demotion last season.

When it comes to scoring from dead-ball situations (aside from spot-kicks), the Gunners and Chelsea have recorded the most significant jump, with both sides replacing the five fewer scores that they've netted in open play with identical figures from set-pieces.

Manchester United have scored two times more scores from set-plays as they did in the 11 games last season before Ruben Amorim assumed control, while Sunderland again have been better at converting than the club they replaced that went down.

Man City appear not to have received the trend about scoring more from set-plays, since they've netted three less than the previous campaign, like Nottingham Forest, although this could be because of the altered approach they have tried to implement.

Overall Patterns

Six teams – the Gunners, Chelsea, Fulham, the Magpies, Spurs and the Hammers – are this term's primary examples by netting less scores from open-play and additional from set-pieces, while City represent the unique club to buck the trend to date by doing the exact opposite.

It will be fascinating to observe if sides carry on to rely so heavily on set-plays as the season goes on or if they find again their overall inventiveness and start scoring more goals in open play too.